Prognoza progów na medycynę 2019 cz.2
Witajcie!
Od czasu publikacji prognozy progów na medycynę udoskonaliliśmy nasz model matematyczny. Zapoznaliśmy się także wnikliwiej z tegorocznymi metodami obliczania punktów na poszczególne uczelnie i poprawiliśmy błędy, na które zwróciliście nam uwagę w komentarzach.
O progach decydują trzy główne czynniki:
1)Limit przyjęć na uczelnie medyczne
2)Liczba chętnych
3) “i to, jak poszła nam matura”
Ten pierwszy znamy bezpośrednio:
Dwa pozostałe uwzględniamy biorąc pod uwagę liczbę zdających, średnią, odchylenie standardowe oraz medianę. Odchylenie standardowe zdradza nam jak bardzo wyniki są „rozrzucone” wokół wartości średniej, a mediana to inaczej 50. centyl, mówi więc nam o tym jak „trudny” był egzamin w danym roku. Poniżej możecie zobaczyć jak zmieniała się ona w przeciągu ostatnich lat:
Wiedząc jak limity przyjęć i wyniki matur wpływały na progi w minionej dekadzie, mogliśmy utworzyć dla każdej uczelni funkcję zależną od 9 parametrów (a więc jej wykres jest 10-wymiarowy!), która powstaje przez odpowiednie dopasowanie krzywej do danych. Mogliśmy to zrobić dzięki pewnym metodom matematycznym, czerpiącym w dużej mierze z analizy oraz algebry macierzowej. W ten sposób możemy przewidzieć tegoroczne progi, mowa tu o rych końcowych, październikowych. Przy czym dużego błędu można się spodziewać w przypadku Opola, gdyż uczelnia ta oferuje kierunek medyczny dopiero od dwóch lat. W pozostałych przypadkach spodziewamy się co najwyżej małych odchyleń.
AKTUALIZACJA PROGNOZY PROGÓW PUNKTOWYCH 2019 (starej nie usuwamy, ponieważ jak powiedział F.Dostojewski “Błędy to droga do prawdy”)
| Progi stacjonarne | Progi niestacjonarne | |
|---|---|---|
| Białystok | 157 | 121 |
| Bydgoszcz | 75 | 63 |
| Gdańsk | 156 | 114 |
| Katowice/Zabrze | 154 | 110 |
| Kielce | 146 | 124 |
| Łódź | 301 | 287 |
| Opole | 150 | 101 |
| Poznań | 154 | 139 |
| Rzeszów | 156 | 117 |
| Szczecin | 155 | 125 |
| Zielona Góra | 150 | 107 |
| Kraków | 75 | 64 |
| Lublin | 237 | 149 |
| Olsztyn | 422 | NIE MA |
| Warszawa | 224 | 146 |
| Wrocław | 258 | 194 |
Miłej lektury i powodzenia! 🙂
Zespół namedycyne.pl
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To jak z tą prognozą na stomę?
Czy prognoza w przypadku Leku na WUMie niestacjo przewiduje spadek limitu miejsc ze 180-130 w tym roku?
ŚUM (Kato) pierwszy próg 163
Jak liczyc punkty na lekarski w lublinie skoro proponowany wyzej prog wynosi 237??
Prosze szanownego przepowiadacza dlaczego progi na UJ niestacjonarne wzrosły z prognozy na prognozę z 155,88 na 192 tym bardziej , że w tym roku brana jest tylko mat rozszerzona ?
Jak myślicie czy 163 punkty do Katowic to może być wynik do przyjęcia w I turze?
Cos z progami do Lublina nie tak skoro tam liczy sie rozszerzenia razy dwa a matme niezależnie pod pozioma razy jeden co daje 500
W tym roku max można mieć 300 punktów- biolka+chemia+matma podst/roszerz (są liczone tak samo) 🙂
Czyli ze na niestacjonarne w Rzeszowie spadnie o 5 punktow prawdopodobnie ? Bo w 2018 byl chyba 122 Ale na jakiej zasadzie on spadnie? Skoro matura poszla porównywalnie
Witam! A można dodać jeszcze progi w Radomiu ?
czy moglibyście zdradzić dla których 2 uczelni funkcja logarytmiczna się nie sprawdza? Czy Opole i Lublin?
ja jestem pełen podziwu. Chyba nikt wcześniej nie podszedł do tego tak skrupulatnie i od strony stricte matematycznej
Łódź aż tak nisko? 😮
WItam, rozumiem że Kraków to 75×3= 225?
POZDROWIONKA!
Dzień dobry , mam pytanie czy będą państwo w stanie stworzyć podobną prognozą tylko, że na kierunek lekarsko-dentystyczny , bo myśle,że cieszyłby się on równie wysokim zainteresowaniem. Pozdrawiam
Tak, na dniach pojawi się prognoza dla lek-dent, proszę śledzić stronę. Pozdrawiamy ! 😉